Not brace months into the millenium.

Not brace months into the millenium, another airplane was hijacked, marking the other takeover of a commercial airliner in 45 days. However, couple data points do not necessarily make a trend

The latest seizures - of an Indian Airlines A300 Dec 24 1999 and of an Arian Airlines B727 Feb 6 - bring the total number of hijackings to nearly 1000 since 1948 (see ASW, Jan 17)

However, the long-term pattern is marked from a general decline in the commonness of hijackings. While the turn is heartening, it is no cause for complacency. Aviation security might be compared to riding a unicycle - it takes continuous concentrated effort.

When all of the known attempted and auspicious hijackings against commercial airliners are tallied, the total follows to some 970 events. It is a larger number than may be realized generally, further that is the figure that come ups from an accounting by this publication of the history of hijacking. Indeed, given gaps in reporting, the number of hijackings may be undercounted

The first hijacking occurr practically at the dawn of fresh air travel. In February 1931 a Peruvian airliner (type unknown) was seized. However, for the nearest 17 years, according to our records, no civil airliners were hijacked.

Then, in 1948 a Czechoslovakian airliner was hijacked and landed in the U girth of occupied Germany. This hijacking marked the first of a rash of post-World War II hijackings, greatest in quantity of which occurred in Eastern Europe as desperate citizens sought to escape an Iron Curtain that was slamming down in succession the demarcation between Communist-controlled Eastern Europe and the West. It is from this occurrence in 1948 that our account of 970 hijackings begins. Of this grand total, more than 700 involved foreign-registered aircraft. a certain number of 240 U.S. airliners have been make subordinateed to attempted and successful hijacks.

The first hijacking in the U did not present itself until 1961, when a National Airlines Convair 440 was commandeered on one Ortiz Ramirez, who ordered the aircrew to hover to Cuba. That event place the stage for a dramatic increase in hijackings in the U and Havana was the favored destination. Indeed, between the sides of the mid-1980's, one out of each three airplanes hijacked in the world personateed an attempt to get to Cuba.

The number of hijackings peaked in the U at 35 in 1969 and peaked at 53 for foreign carriers in 1970 The hijacking threat during this period, the two in the U.S. and globally, galvanized authorities to deposit in place many of the security practices seen routinely in operation today. As a rise the growth in the average rate of hijackings has abated.

From the history of hijackings, a number of observations can be made:

* The number of hijackings occurring each year is going down, including overseas (i.e., non-U.S. registered aircraft).

* In the peak years 1969-1970 there were eight times more hijackings than be met with today.

* The collapse of the Soviet Empire and discord in China has contributed greatly to the distribution of hijackings since 1989 Hijackings in Russia, other states of the former Soviet Union, and in China account for more than 40 percent of the global total.

* The incidence of hijackings for the past 3-4 years compares roughly to the on a level in the late 1950's and early 1960's.

* throughout the past decade, the worst year for hijackings was in 1990 with 41 That peak was at least four times higher than the average through the past three years of about 10 hijackings by means of year.

* The last hijacking in the U occurr in February 1991 In the nine years since, more than 140 foreign airliners have been hijacked.

From the statistics, perhaps these observations are germane:

* Hijackings appear to be more likely in poor countries that have not devot the resources to aviation security comparable to the investment in manpower and equipment that has been made in the evolveed world.

* Hijackings are more likely to fall out in areas of socio-political unrest "tribal" hatreds, economic collapse, or a combination of like factors.

* Where screening and other proceedings are in place, the incident rate has been reduc dramatically.

* Motivation matters. It should be inclemencyed that in those countries with the best aviation security, the incentive to hijack an airplane to escape may also be the lowest. Cuba's former allure as a favored destination for hijackers has tarnished.

Just to make the point, without of nearly 1,000 hijacking incidents athwart the last half-century of air travel, the data indicate that the number of attempts to hijack an airliner from a first world fatherland to another first world rural parts is virtually nil. There have been numerous cases of attempted extortion, so as the 1972 attempt at Billy Hurst, who seized a Braniff B727 in Houston and demanded $1 million. He part withed and was later imprisoned.

Bombing attacks onward airliners will be the expose of a future story in this publication.

Acknowledgement: We are indebted to Aerospace Services International (ASI) of Chantilly, Va., an aviation security consulting firm, for filling gaps in our data, and to Aerospace Planning cluster LLC, for preparing the graphics. >> ASI, tel 703/322-1900; APG, tel 301/254-9000 <<

COPYRIGHT 2000 Phillips Publishing International, Inc.

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